Anchorage--
Tom Kizzia has a front-page story in today's Anchorage Daily News discussing evidence that questionable payments--perhaps bribes--went to key Members of Congress to secure passage of legislation to buy Alaska from Russia in 1867. This evidence comes from a new biography of Secretary of State William H. Seward.
Norms were different back then, as shown in the historically accurate portrayal of political maneuvering in the new movie Lincoln. The film shows lobbyists associated with Seward--and President Abraham Lincoln--dangle jobs in front of Members of Congress to get them to vote for the 13th Amendment to prohibit slavery. It is even more clear that laws--and the enforcement of the laws--also were substantially different in the 19th century than they are today. The magisterial book Bribes by John T. Noonan, Jr. points out that it was not until 1853 that it was against the law to bribe a Member of Congress, and there were no convictions before 1905. Noonan cites the English observer James Brice's estimate in 1889 that about one-quarter of Congress took cash, stocks, land, or other property for their votes or committee actions.
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Why Were So Many Experts Surprised by Obama's Victory?--UPDATED
Anchorage--
A number of people have asked why so many presumably well-informed people--apparently including high-ranking people in the Mitt Romney campaign itself--were so surprised when President Barack Obama won re-election, particularly by the margin he did. One of those asking was my sister, so I wrote this analysis for her. I am taking my wife's suggestion to post a slightly edited version of that analysis on this blog.
Despite a number of public polls showing the likelihood of an Obama victory, some analysts gave wildly incorrect predictions of a strong win for former Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee. One example of such a terrifically inaccurate prognostication was that by the long-time political analyst Michael Barone. This veteran columnist and co-founder of the seminal Almanac of American Politics wrote on Nov. 2 that Romney would win 315 electoral votes. Barone gave a backup prediction in the same piece that subtracted Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Romney's column and thus still had Romney winning the presidency with 285 electoral votes, 15 more than the 270 needed to gain victory in the Electoral College. (Barone eats his crow here in the face of the President's victory, which now with the Florida recount showing Obama the winner in that state makes his Electoral College total stand at 332.)
This question of "Why were people surprised when Obama won?" is separate but related to the question of why Obama won, which would include factors such as the nation's changing demographics, the Obama campaign's superior get-out-the vote efforts (as conceded by Romney campaign staff), and the apparently more effective use of advertising by the Obama campaign and its affiliated groups. Influenced by the commentators Josh Marshall and James Fallows, I offer this list of reasons for why there was so much surprise Tuesday night in the world of Fox News:
1. As my son's Campaigns and Elections professor pointed out to that class, the economic fundamentals were not as negative for Obama as a number of commentators thought, particularly because the economy is improving and many voters blame George W. Bush for the disappointing economy.
2. Some commentators predicting a Romney victory focused on a perceived momentum and an intensity gap favoring Romney in the last month of the campaign. The problem was that at least in some cases this perception of momentum, enthusiasm, and intensity seemed to be sharply influenced by the facts that (a) those commentators themselves strongly disapproved of Obama's policies and (b) those commentators spent a lot of time talking with other people who strongly disapproved of Obama's policies and projected the feelings of their friends to the electorate as a whole. (This last sentiment is sometimes known as "the living in a bubble and not knowing it" problem, (unfairly) associated with the former New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael's alleged reaction to Richard Nixon's sweeping victory in 1972.)
3. More technically, some commentators thought that most of the polls showing a lead for Obama were skewed by assuming that the voting public would consist of more Democrats than Republicans. Those commentators thought that was unlikely. A good example of that "Most polls are skewed" view was the John Podhoretz column just before the election in the New York Post which relies on the Rasmussen and Gallup national polls, two organizations that consistently reported better results for Romney that many other polling outfits. As Podhoretz notes, Rasmussen predicted in October 39 percent R and 33 percent D, and Gallup predicted in October 36 percent R and 35 percent D.
The exit polls showed that most of the polls conducted by organizations other than Rasmussen and Gallup were right--in fact, 38 percent of the voters identified as Democrats and 32 percent identified as Republicans.
How did Rasmussen and Gallup get this so wrong?
I have heard four explanations. The first is a huge racial mistake by Gallup, which assumed that 78 percent of the voters would be white. Instead, the exit polls showed that only 72 percent of the voters were white. Nonwhite voters were obviously much more likely to vote for Obama than white voters.
A second factor is that Rasmussen and Gallup missed how much self-identification as Republican has dropped in recent years, with possible explanations being unhappiness with George W. Bush's presidency or displeasure with perceived obstructionism by Congressional Republicans during Obama's presidency.
The other two explanations for why Rasmussen and Gallup thought the voters would be so much more Republican and/or white than actually occurred are rooted in technical deficiencies in the methodologies of some polls. Rasmussen runs robo-polls through automated pre-recorded telephone calls, and federal law prohibits a computer from calling a cell phone. People who have only cell phones and not land lines tend to be younger and more likely to be minorities than people who have only land lines. It also appears that some polling organizations do not use Spanish-language interviewers, and that might produce a small but significant bias in critical states such as Florida and Colorado.
4. Some commentators predicting a Romney victory pointed to the traditional rule in politics that undecided voters break late against the incumbent. That traditional rule did not apply in 2012. In fact, exit polls showed that most of the 9 percent of the voters deciding in the last few days went for Obama.
5. Romney led in many of the polls (and in the exit polls) among independents, and some commentators predicting a Romney triumph cited the traditional rule in politics that the candidate who wins independents wins the election. Independents did go for Romney--the exit polls showed that Romney won independents by only 5 points, although that was a smaller margin than the Romney campaign was counting on. But that 5-point advantage was also insufficient for Romney because of another problem with the traditional rule this year alluded to in Point 3 above--it is not true that independents are a group sitting equidistant between the two parties. A number of self-identified independents are former Republicans who had stopped using that label. As Josh Marshall has pointed out, a number of those newly self-identified independents were still likely to hold conservative views and may have stopped labeling themselves as Republicans out of a belief that the Republican Party favored too large a government. That movement of Tea Party types away from describing themselves as Republicans weakened the predictive effect of the "independents control" rule.
[November 11--Following a conversation with my son, this morning I updated this post and tweaked it for clarity.]
[November 11--Following a conversation with my son, this morning I updated this post and tweaked it for clarity.]
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Alaskans, You Should Read This Before You Vote on the Constitutional Convention Question
Anchorage--
Proposition No. 1 on Alaska's ballot next Tuesday asks the voters to decide whether there should be a Constitutional Convention. The Constitution itself requires that this question appear on the ballot every 10 years, and this is the year for that vote.
This is a deceptively simple question with big ramifications. I have worked with Alaska Common Ground, an organization of which I am a board member, to develop a position paper on this issue. Here is a link to it.
Proposition No. 1 on Alaska's ballot next Tuesday asks the voters to decide whether there should be a Constitutional Convention. The Constitution itself requires that this question appear on the ballot every 10 years, and this is the year for that vote.
This is a deceptively simple question with big ramifications. I have worked with Alaska Common Ground, an organization of which I am a board member, to develop a position paper on this issue. Here is a link to it.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Alaska Legislative Candidate Discloses Apparent Bribe Attempt from VECO in 1996 Regarding Private Prison
Anchorage--
Richard Mauer of the Anchorage Daily News does it again, getting an Alaska State Senate candidate to reveal that in 1996 he was offered engineering contracts and "a whole bunch of money" for his re-election campaign to the Anchorage Assembly if the official would support the effort of the now-defunct oil-services giant VECO and other companies to build a private prison in South Anchorage.
The legislative candidate--Anchorage Republican and consulting engineer Bob Bell--told the newspaper that he turned down the money and did not support the prison but also did not report this apparent bribery attempt to authorities.
Mauer's article includes this exchange:
"Told that the offer of an engineering contract in return for his support of the prison as an Assemblyman could be a crime, Bell replied:
'It is?'"
The Anchorage Daily News story also reports that Bell had released a list showing that the oil producer BP was the biggest client of Bell's engineering firm in 2011, and in fact had paid more than $1 million.
These revelations have the potential of shaking up a State Senate race that is a critical campaign in the efforts of Gov. Sean Parnell and oil producers to engineer a majority in the State Senate friendly to Parnell's initiative to cut taxes on oil production in an attempt to stimulate that production.
Richard Mauer of the Anchorage Daily News does it again, getting an Alaska State Senate candidate to reveal that in 1996 he was offered engineering contracts and "a whole bunch of money" for his re-election campaign to the Anchorage Assembly if the official would support the effort of the now-defunct oil-services giant VECO and other companies to build a private prison in South Anchorage.
The legislative candidate--Anchorage Republican and consulting engineer Bob Bell--told the newspaper that he turned down the money and did not support the prison but also did not report this apparent bribery attempt to authorities.
Mauer's article includes this exchange:
"Told that the offer of an engineering contract in return for his support of the prison as an Assemblyman could be a crime, Bell replied:
'It is?'"
The Anchorage Daily News story also reports that Bell had released a list showing that the oil producer BP was the biggest client of Bell's engineering firm in 2011, and in fact had paid more than $1 million.
These revelations have the potential of shaking up a State Senate race that is a critical campaign in the efforts of Gov. Sean Parnell and oil producers to engineer a majority in the State Senate friendly to Parnell's initiative to cut taxes on oil production in an attempt to stimulate that production.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Tom Anderson Likely to Get Off Probation Early
Anchorage--
Federal probation authorities have made an unopposed request that ex-Alaska State Rep. Tom Anderson be released early from probation. Richard Mauer of the Anchorage Daily News has the report on the request, which would shave about nine months of Anderson's sentence based on the former Anchorage Republican legislator's compliance with the terms of his supervised release, including a substance abuse program.
It is always seemed odd in some moral sense that Anderson--who is obviously not the most culpable figure in the federal probe into Alaska public corruption--has served the most severe sentence of any defendant in the cases arising from that investigation.
Federal probation authorities have made an unopposed request that ex-Alaska State Rep. Tom Anderson be released early from probation. Richard Mauer of the Anchorage Daily News has the report on the request, which would shave about nine months of Anderson's sentence based on the former Anchorage Republican legislator's compliance with the terms of his supervised release, including a substance abuse program.
It is always seemed odd in some moral sense that Anderson--who is obviously not the most culpable figure in the federal probe into Alaska public corruption--has served the most severe sentence of any defendant in the cases arising from that investigation.
Saturday, September 8, 2012
How the Feds Started Investigating Ted Stevens and Moved Toward an Indictment
Anchorage--
Here is the next installment of my series of columns on the Ted Stevens case in the Alaska Bar Rag. This latest piece will appear in the edition of the official publication for the Last Frontier's lawyers that is published this month.
Here is the next installment of my series of columns on the Ted Stevens case in the Alaska Bar Rag. This latest piece will appear in the edition of the official publication for the Last Frontier's lawyers that is published this month.
How
the Feds Started Investigating Ted Stevens and Moved Toward an Indictment
by
Cliff Groh
Our understanding of the Ted Stevens case has grown
substantially in the past several months from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office
of Professional Responsibility (“OPR”) report on misconduct in that prosecution,
which comes on the heels of the report of the court-appointed special counsel
(“the Schuelke report”).
There is so much in the record now about the Justice
Department’s development of the indictment against Ted Stevens, in fact, that
this piece—the second in a series of offerings on this highly significant
case—is only the first installment of my columns on the charging decisions in
that case.
The following analysis presents facts and opinions based
on the more than 2,000 pages contained in those reports and the responses and
rebuttals to them. This column also
relies on information gained from my in-person coverage of the five-week Ted
Stevens trial in Washington, D.C. in 2008, my continuing coverage of the
post-trial litigation and other cases arising out of the “POLAR PEN” federal
investigation into Alaska public corruption, and dozens of interviews with
participants and observers.
Contrary to what many Alaskans believe, a search of the record
does not show a malevolent plot to prosecute Ted Stevens so as to remove him
from the U.S. Senate for partisan reasons or to retaliate against him for some
old personal slight. The Justice
Department’s handling of the case can be legitimately faulted on a number of
levels—the timing was ill-advised, the organization was chaotic, the management
was dysfunctional, and the discovery violations were deeply disturbing. There does not appear, however, to have
been an evil mastermind behind the charges against Ted Stevens. My reporting and analysis backs up the
reporting of the Wall Street Journal
and the Washington Post in pieces
published at the time of the collapse of the Ted Stevens prosecution in April
of 2009 regarding the absence of what the latter newspaper called “base
political motivations.”
The
Ted Stevens Case Grows Out of Operation Polar Pen, and Operation Polar Pen Starts
with Private Prisons
Let’s walk through the process that brought the
charges. The investigation that brought
down Alaska’s most important public official began not with an examination of a
U.S. Senator’s home renovations and his mandatory annual disclosure forms. Instead, the probe that led to the
prosecution of Ted Stevens started five years before his indictment as an
investigation into private prisons. In
the dry words of the OPR report, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Anchorage opened
that corrections-focused investigation in July of 2003 “after the FBI developed
information that an Alaska private prison company and a lobbyist were corruptly
influencing state legislators.” In a
nod to the Last Frontier correctional origins of the investigation, the probe
was dubbed “Operation Polar Pen.”
The investigation began with the work of an FBI agent
named Mary Beth Kepner. Her blond hair
and trim physique made her look a lot more like a soccer mom than one of the
grim-faced feds famous from the days of J. Edgar Hoover. (Indeed, her achievements as a college
soccer goalie still live on the Internet.)
Starting in Philadelphia—where she investigated complex white-collar and
organized crime cases—Kepner had been with “the Bureau” for more than 10 years
when she opened Polar Pen while working in the FBI’s small Juneau office.
The investigation grew in depth and scope after the
federal government got Frank Prewitt—a former Alaska Commissioner of
Corrections turned private prison lobbyist and consultant for Texas-based
Cornell Companies—to become a cooperating witness. Prewitt started recording (“wiring up”) on
various Alaskans and provided information that allowed federal investigators to
get wiretaps on telephones. (Setting aside whatever immunity
Prewitt’s cooperation got him for his own potential exposure as a defendant, it
is striking that Prewitt received $200,000 from the federal government for his
work; it is indeed odd that Prewitt couldn’t find room to mention that payment
in a 167–page book he wrote about his experiences as an informant.)
The
Justice Department’s Top Corruption Fighters Get on the Case
As Polar Pen ballooned, the lawyers working on the probe
changed. The Anchorage-based U.S.
Attorney’s Office started receiving assistance in June of 2004 from the Justice
Department’s Public Integrity Section.
Given that the Public Integrity Section soon came to direct all the
prosecutions growing out of the Polar Pen probe—including the Ted Stevens
case—a little examination of that unit is in order.
The Public Integrity Section was founded in 1976 on a
wave of reforms following the Watergate scandals. By its official mission, it “oversees the
federal effort to combat corruption through the prosecution of elected and
appointed public officials at all levels of government.” Staffed with about 30 attorneys, the Public
Integrity Section has had some high-profile successes. Notable achievements included the Abscam
investigation in the late 1970s and early 1980s (which led to the convictions
of six Members of Congress) and the more recent probe into super-lobbyist Jack
Abramoff (which has led to the conviction of more than a dozen people,
including a Member of Congress and several executive branch officials and
Congressional staff members).
The Public Integrity Section had traditionally been known
as an elite outfit and a breeding ground for stars like Attorney General Eric
Holder and Reid Weingarten, one of a number of the unit’s lawyers who went on
to a well-compensated career as a criminal defense attorney for the rich and
famous.
By 2004, however, the Public Integrity Section was in the
midst of some turmoil. Heavy turnover
dogged the section during most of the 2000s, with the New York Times finding that only a quarter of the prosecutors who
had been with the unit at the beginning of President George W. Bush’s tenure remained
there at the end.
The comings and goings were particularly frequent at the
unit’s top. The Washington Post reported in April of 2009 that the Public Integrity
Section had had five heads in the past six years.
Nick
Marsh Comes to Probe Alaska Corruption
The lead attorney on the ground for the Public Integrity
Section—Nicholas “Nick” Marsh—was new to his job as well, and his part in this
story is important enough that it’s worth sketching out his background. A slender and intense man in his early 30s when
he began work on the Polar Pen probe in 2004, Marsh had only become a
prosecutor about a year before he started traveling back and forth between the
“Main Justice” headquarters in D.C. and Alaska.
The boyish-looking Marsh had been a high-flyer in his
relatively short life. After clerking
for Fairbanks-based Judge Andrew Kleinfeld of the Ninth Circuit Court of
Appeals, the native Kentuckian had worked for two old-line law firms in New
York City, rising to junior partner at the second.
Marsh wanted to be a prosecutor, however, reflecting a
passion for public service and a strong impulse to mix it up. That last quality showed up in his lettering
in lacrosse in college, a fact at odds with the wonky vibe he displayed in
court. He joined the Justice Department
in 2003 and was assigned to the Public Integrity Section in the fall of that
year. After he completed a six-month
detail in the Washington, D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office, Marsh’s supervisors in
the Public Integrity Section put him on Polar Pen.
Marsh’s assignment on the Last Frontier was definitely
not full-time, as the young attorney juggled a variety of cases around the
country. The new hire impressed his
bosses by handling three appellate cases his first year, according to the National Law Journal. Marsh also worked in 2004 on the
Mississippi-based prosecutions flowing out of fraud in lawsuits involving the
drug fen-phen, and he was on the government’s courtroom team at a 2005 trial in
New Hampshire over a Republican campaign official’s involvement in jamming the
phones on a Democratic Party get-out-the-vote drive.
The Justice Department approved a partial recusal of the
Anchorage-based U.S. Attorney’s Office in September of 2004 that gave Marsh a particularly
big role in the Polar Pen probe. While
giving four lawyers from that office the job to “monitor, manage, and direct
the day to day operation” of Polar Pen, the Deputy Attorney General
simultaneously assigned the Public Integrity Section “overall responsibility”
for the probe, including “investigative and prosecutorial decisions.”
Bolstered by more than 17,000 intercepted conversations
caught on wiretaps, the Polar Pen probe into Alaska public corruption expanded
to cover allegations that VECO executives corruptly influenced state
legislators over the construction of a natural gas pipeline and related
petroleum tax legislation. Polar Pen
progressed to the point that federal officials investigated at least 19 people,
according to a filing submitted by one of the prosecutors involved in the
investigation, while Alaska journalist Bill McAllister reported in 2007 after
news broke of the probe that multiple sources had told him that it would result
in the indictment of 26 people.
Polar
Pen Zeroes in on Senator Ted Stevens
Back when Polar Pen was still covert, the probe started
focusing on its most prominent target, U.S. Sen. Ted Stevens, an Alaska icon
and Capitol Hill powerhouse who had held his Senate seat for more than three
decades.
The record isn’t clear about when the investigation began
that focus on Ted Stevens. Some
observers thought that the Los Angeles
Times started that ball rolling with two articles in 2003. The first focused on the links between the
lobbying and consulting clients of Ted Stevens’ son Ben and legislative
assistance provided by Ted Stevens to those clients, including VECO. Another LA
Times story published that year headlined “Senator’s Way to Wealth Was
Paved with Favors” laid out how Ted Stevens became a millionaire “thanks to investments
with businessmen who received government contracts or other benefits with his
help.”
At Ted Stevens’ trial, prosecutors introduced evidence of
assistance that the Senator had provided to VECO on a Pakistani pipeline
project referenced in one of those newspaper articles; on the other hand,
federal investigators never interviewed Chuck Neubauer, the journalist who did
most of the reporting and research on the two Times stories.
Another straw in the wind comes from a statement in a Wall Street Journal article by reporter
Evan Perez in 2009 that the Ted Stevens case “was investigated for more than
four years.” Given that the indictment
and trial both occurred in 2008, that would put the start of the federal probe
into Ted Stevens at no later than 2004.
The Department of Justice’s official history—the OPR
report—says that it was a monitored telephone conversation between VECO
executives Bill Allen and Rick Smith on October 19, 2005 that shifted the spotlight
of the federal probe onto Ted Stevens. In that call, Allen and Smith discussed
benefits VECO had provided to Ted Stevens in the form of renovations at
Stevens’ Girdwood residence. The OPR
report then states: “Thereafter, the
government obtained additional information about the Girdwood renovations,
noting that Stevens had not reported the benefits on his United States Senate
Public Financial Disclosure Reports for the corresponding years.”
Whatever the precise date federal investigators started
looking hard at Ted Stevens, it is clear that very shortly after that telephone
call the leadership of the Anchorage-based U.S. Attorney’s Office wanted no
part of the probe.
On November 5, 2005, the Justice Department approved what
the OPR report describes as an “office wide” recusal of that office based on
the office’s concern “[g]iven the high degree of sensitivity of such an
investigation and the controversy likely to be engendered by investigating such
individuals in the close knit Alaskan community.”
This recusal left the Public Integrity Section in charge
of the federal probe into Alaska public corruption. Despite that “office wide” recusal, the
investigation also proceeded with the assistance of two Anchorage-based
Assistant U.S. Attorneys, Joseph Bottini and James Goeke.
In practice, this recusal made Marsh Polar Pen’s “top
dog,” as veteran Anchorage attorney Jeff Feldman told New Yorker writer Jeffrey Toobin.
This development meant that Bottini—who had been a prosecutor for
approximately 20 years—was effectively supervised on POLAR PEN by a lawyer with
about 10 percent of his experience as a prosecutor.
The Polar Pen prosecution team increased to four in 2006
with the addition of Edward Sullivan, who was immediately assigned to the probe
upon his joining Public Integrity. (Confusingly,
three unrelated Sullivans played significant roles in the Ted Stevens
case—there was Edward Sullivan the prosecutor, Emmet Sullivan the trial judge,
and Brendan Sullivan the chief defense counsel.) Edward Sullivan had been a lawyer for 10 years
when he started on Polar Pen, and he—like Marsh and Goeke—had clerked for a
federal judge. (It is a telling social
commentary that the OPR report details federal clerking experience of these
three lawyers while omitting Bottini’s experience clerking for a state court
judge.) Despite Edward Sullivan’s
impressive resume, his prosecutorial experience was zero.
The
Grand Juries Hear Evidence, While a Logical Source of Help Goes Largely
Untapped
The Polar Pen team presented evidence regarding Ted Stevens
to grand juries between November of 2006 and June of 2008. One grand jury sat in Anchorage, and the
other sat in Washington, D.C. Despite
the use of the grand jury in the nation’s capital, the Washington, D.C. U.S.
Attorney’s Office had no significant involvement in the Ted Stevens case.
This was too bad for the prosecution, particularly since
the Justice Department was aiming for a possible trial in Washington. As Washington
Post reporter Carrie Johnson pointed out after the government’s case collapsed
in 2009, the government’s path could have been smoother if the Washington U.S.
Attorney’s Office had been part of the case, thereby adding “players who were
familiar with the courthouse and the personality of the trial judge.” Such a role for that office would have not
been at all unprecedented in a major public corruption case. The Washington U.S. Attorney’s Office ran
the prosecution of U.S. Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D.-Illinois), the long-time
chairman of the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee, that produced his
guilty plea in 1996 and a sentence that put him in federal custody for 17
months.
There are varying explanations for the lack of
significant participation by the Washington U.S. Attorney’s Office in the
prosecution of Ted Stevens. That 2009 Washington Post story reported that
prosecutors in that office “were consulted about the Stevens case starting in
2006 but declined to participate, thinking that the charges were shaky,
according to sources familiar with the discussions.” That article also stated that sources said
“The assistant U.S. attorneys also considered overly aggressive the
prosecutors' early plan, later abandoned, to get a warrant to search the
lawmaker's D.C. area home….”
On the other hand, the OPR report suggests that it was
the competition for glory that blocked the participation of the Washington U.S.
Attorney’s Office, not that office’s perception that the Polar Pen team was on
the wrong track with Ted Stevens.
Glen Donath, an Assistant U.S. Attorney from the Fraud
and Public Corruption Section of the Washington U.S. Attorney’s Office, did
attend at least one grand jury session in Washington in April of 2007 regarding
Ted Stevens. The Public Integrity
Section ran him off the case quickly, however.
Donath—who had previously served on the team defending President Clinton
at the impeachment trial—ended his slight participation in the Ted Stevens case
after Public Integrity officials communicated to him that he was not needed and
that any role he would play would be minor and merely an accommodation to his
superiors. Edward Sullivan told OPR
that Public Integrity Section Chief William Welch spelled it out more bluntly,
conveying the message that Donath was “coming in late” and would be viewed as a
“fifth wheel.”
Charges
the Justice Department Considered
Contemporaneous media reports in the Anchorage Daily News, the Associated
Press, and Roll Call showed that the federal government conducted a wide-ranging
investigation of Ted Stevens and his close associates. As detailed in that coverage and in
interviews, this probe included an examination of legislative assistance Ted
Stevens had provided that had benefitted his son Ben (who was by 2006 President
of the Alaska State Senate), Ted Stevens’ former long-time legislative aide
Trevor McCabe, and Anchorage businessmen who had engaged in real estate deals
with Ted Stevens that the Senator bragged about publicly. As part of this investigation, the FBI
Interviewed former state legislator and activist Ray Metcalfe, who had
accumulated evidence to support allegations regarding real estate transactions
and fisheries legislation. The Justice
Department also perceived early on in the investigation that tax charges could
be brought against Ted Stevens, and the OPR report says that IRS agents
remained part of the prosecution team through the Ted Stevens trial.
In the end, however, the prosecution’s charges did not
relate to real estate transactions, fisheries legislation, or income taxes, and
the word “earmark” appeared nowhere in the 28-page indictment issued on July
29, 2008.
Instead, the prosecution focused during the three-month
period before the issuance of the indictment on five charges:
--Bribery under 18 U.S. Code
Subsec. 201(b)(2);
--Illegal gratuities under
18 U.S. Code Subsec. 201(c)(1)(B);
--Honest-services fraud
under 18 U.S. Code Secs. 1341-1351;
-- Conversion of services of
government employees for personal use under 18 U.S. Code Sec. 641; and
--False statements, by
concealment under 18 U.S. Code Subsec. 1001(a)(1) and by omission under 18 U.S.
Code Subsec. 1001(a)(2).
Except for the potential conversion charge—which
concerned Ted Stevens’ alleged use of Senate staff members to pay the personal
bills of himself and his family—all these potential charges would have related
to things of value received by Ted Stevens and not reported on mandatory annual
Senate disclosure forms. Most of those
things of value involved renovations to the Senator’s Girdwood home provided by
Bill Allen and/or VECO.
There’s a common problem with the three charges listed
above regarding Ted Stevens.
Conviction under the bribery or illegal gratuities statutes requires
“official acts” in connection with the crimes.
Honest-services fraud—a favorite arrow in the federal prosecutor’s
quiver before the U.S. Supreme Court sharply restricted the reach of the
statute in 2010—does not explicitly require a quid pro quo between the receipt of a specific thing of value and a
specific official act. With honest
services fraud, prosecutors have tended to look to prove the defendant received
a stream of things of value in exchange for a series of official acts.
At least one line prosecutor pushed hard for the
inclusion of one or more of these counts in the Ted Stevens indictment. Higher-ups at the Department of Justice,
however, seemed to perceive that Stevens had delivered so much for so many
Alaskans over four decades that it was difficult to say that the Senator was
motivated by gifts to do official acts.
Those supervisors appeared to understand that it was difficult to throw
a rock in any populated place on the Last Frontier and not hit somebody who had
benefitted from an official act of “Uncle Ted”—whether it was a local
appropriation or intervention with the federal bureaucracy—and that the great
majority of those who had received help from the Senator had never given him a
penny in campaign contributions, much less gifts (and had certainly never given
his son Ben a lobbying or consulting contract).
It would have probably fortified the Justice Department
brass in their rejection of bribery/illegal gratuities charges/honest services
fraud charges against Ted Stevens if they had been aware of a conversation the
lead FBI agent on Polar Pen had with a journalist in May of 2008. Mary Beth Kepner met with reporter Tony
Hopfinger at a coffee shop in midtown Anchorage. This meeting occurred more than nine months
after the FBI had executed a search warrant on the Senator’s Girdwood home and
in the final throes of the Justice Department’s decision on the
indictment. In the conversation—later
recounted in Crude Awakening, a book
by Hopfinger and Amanda Coyne, and in a recent interview with Hopfinger—Kepner speculated
that Allen had bribed Ted Stevens by renovating the Senator’s house. The FBI agent then asked the reporter: “What do you think the quid pro quo was?”
Given that this conversation occurred after the FBI had been
investigating Ted Stevens for at least 2.5 years and in the last 90 days before
the Justice Department announced the indictment, it was surprising that the
lead FBI agent on the Ted Stevens investigation would at that point ask a
reporter in a coffee shop for that reporter's opinion on a critical element of
a case against Ted Stevens. (Then
again, Kepner was known for her ability to get people to tell her things, and playing
dumb is one well-known way to do that.)
The prosecutors also considered a charge of
conversion. This charge would have been
based on evidence that the Senator had for years arranged for Senate staff
members to work on the Congressional clock to pay from his personal account his
family’s personal bills—including his wife’s credit card bills, the family’s
regular household bills, and the bills for the Senator’s participation in a
horse racing partnership. The 1994
indictment against another Congressional titan—Rep. Rostenkowski—had included a
charge of conversion of federal funds based on the Congressman’s alleged use of
Congressional staff members working on federal time to perform personal services
for Rostenkowski. As laid out in a
2007 article by John Stanton in Roll Call,
Ted Stevens’ alleged use of a Senate staff member making more than $150,000
annually to serve as his “personal bookkeeper” substantially exceeded the occasional
de minimis personal tasks some
Senators asked of their own Senate staff.
Although Polar Pen’s line prosecutors expressed to their
superiors in the spring of 2008 their belief that the evidence and the law
supported a conversion charge against Ted Stevens, those lower-level lawyers
advised against pursuing such a charge because it would significantly distract
from a prosecution based on the Senator’s alleged falsehoods in his annual
disclosure forms. (The prosecution did
use evidence that the above-described Senate staff member routinely paid
Catherine Stevens’ department store credit card bills while cross-examining the
Senator’s wife at his trial.)
Next: The charges of failure to disclose required
financial information that the Justice Department finally settled on
Cliff
Groh is an Anchorage lawyer and writer who has worked as both a prosecutor and
a criminal defense attorney. He has
blogged about the “POLAR PEN” federal probe into Alaska public corruption for
years at www.alaskacorruption.blogspot.com, which in its entry for May 14, 2012
features an expanded and updated list of disclosures. Groh’s analysis regarding the Ted Stevens
case has appeared in media as diverse as C-SPAN, the Los Angeles Times, Alaska
Dispatch, the Anchorage Daily News, and the Anchorage Press. The lifelong Alaskan covered the five-week
Ted Stevens trial in person in Washington, D.C. in the fall of 2008. He welcomes your bouquets, brickbats, tips,
and questions at cliff.groh@gmail.com.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
More of My Writing on Another Alaska Topic
Anchorage--
Entertaining relatives the past two weeks has slowed down my distribution of this news. A chapter on the Prudhoe Bay Curve and Alaska's fiscal system I wrote is in a book published this month by Palgrave Macmillan. It is the second in a series of two academic books published this year on the Permanent Fund Dividend. The first book was published in April, and it included three chapters I co-authored. Here is a link to the book published this month:
http://www.amazon.com/Exporting-Alaska-Model-Permanent-Guarantee/dp/1137006595
Entertaining relatives the past two weeks has slowed down my distribution of this news. A chapter on the Prudhoe Bay Curve and Alaska's fiscal system I wrote is in a book published this month by Palgrave Macmillan. It is the second in a series of two academic books published this year on the Permanent Fund Dividend. The first book was published in April, and it included three chapters I co-authored. Here is a link to the book published this month:
http://www.amazon.com/Exporting-Alaska-Model-Permanent-Guarantee/dp/1137006595
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