Monday, October 27, 2008

Prediction on the Outcome

Live from the Ted Stevens Trial, Day 26

Washington, D.C.--

As a practical matter, the outcomes of this trial fall into three categories:

1. Acquittal on all counts (also known as “Stevens walks” or “pure acquittal”)

2. Hung jury on all counts

3. Conviction on at least one count

It appears that Outcome # 1 above—a pure acquittal—is the least likely result of this trial. The other two outcomes—a jury unable to decide on any of the seven counts and a conviction on at least one count—now seem about equally likely. The prediction would have been different when the case went to the jury last Wednesday, when this blog would have wagered on
conviction on at least one count. But the intervening difficulties arising within the jury have seemed to have marginally increased the odds of a hung jury.

Once again, please recall that this prediction comes from the same blogger who confidently announced that Ted Stevens would never testify in his own defense.

(Thanks go to loyal reader Betsy Ptak, who has frequently urged that the blog post a prediction before the jury returned a verdict.)

3 comments:

Betsy said...

Remind us all - does the hung jury have the same effect as "Stevens walks"? What would that mean to him? (Full disclosure, the loyal reader, Betsy Ptak, is the blogger's sister.)

Alvin said...

Stevens was convicted, according to the ADN website. I expected this, but what happens next? What kind of sentencing will prosecution and defense argue for?

Alaskan Eskimo said...

Palin is at the TO of Alaskas' CORRUPTION LIST!

ABC NEWSWEEK “Palins Future has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. .....One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family--clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. ……..The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast
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